Everything You Know About Lawyer Selection Is Wrong

A Moneyball-style, data-driven case against picking lawyers by reputation, from Premonition Analytics's Hon. Toby Unwin.

Everything You Know About Lawyer Selection Is Wrong

Credited to Premonition Analytics LLC and its director, Hon. Toby Unwin, this 13-page report opens with the Moneyball comparison: the film's depiction of Oakland A's manager Billy Beane using available player data to challenge the conventional wisdom of baseball scouts. The report applies the same logic to how lawyers and law firms get chosen for cases.

Its chapters move from that "Moneyball for law" opening into an analysis of the big firms, a look at whether an unfair advantage exists in litigation outcomes, and a section asking whether firms can recognize great barristers. It also compares win rates between associates and partners and examines how long a lawsuit typically lasts.

Across its sections, the report's throughline is consistent: that decisions about lawyer selection, like player selection in baseball, hold up better when grounded in outcome data than in reputation or intuition.

Download PDF13 pages

More in Research